简易量表在急性缺血性脑卒中患者1年预后评估中的应用

王娜; 刘慧珍; 商娜; 秦卓; 李俊玉; 杜晓霞

doi:10.13201/j.issn.1009-5918.2021.10.009

简易量表在急性缺血性脑卒中患者1年预后评估中的应用

- 1. 首都医科大学康复医学院中国康复研究中心北京博爱医院急诊科(北京, 100068);
- 2. 首都医科大学康复医学院中国康复研究中心北京博爱医院神经康复科
基金项目:
国家重点研发计划(No:2020YFC2004105)

中国残联研究课题(No:20&

YB019)

详细信息

通讯作者: 杜晓霞,E-mail:364906784@qq.com

中图分类号: R743.3

收稿日期: 2021-05-19

Application of simple scale in 1-year prognosis evaluation of patients with acute ischemic stroke

- 1 Department of Emergency, Beijing Bo'ai Hospital, China Rehabilitation Research Center, Capital Medical University School of Rehabilitation Medicine, Beijing, 100068, China;
- 2 Department of Neurological Rehabilitation, Beijing Bo'ai Hospital, China Rehabilitation Research Center, Capital Medical University School of Rehabilitation Medicine

More Information

Corresponding author: DU Xiaoxia, E-mail: 364906784@qq.com

Received Date: 19 May 2021

摘要

摘要: 目的:探讨简易量表对急诊病房急性缺血性脑卒中(AIS)患者1年不良预后的预测效能,并与洛桑卒中量表(ASTRAL)进行比较。方法:选取2015年8月-2018年6月我院急诊病房连续纳入的233例AIS患者,记录患者的临床资料。1年后对患者进行随访,根据改良的脑卒中后神经功能恢复量表(mRS)将其分为预后良好组与预后不良组,应用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)分析评价简易量表对患者1年不良预后的预测能力,并与ASTRAL评分进行比较。使用Hosmer-Lemeshow法判断模型的拟合优度。结果:随访1年,预后良好患者121例,预后不良患者112例,急诊病房中AIS患者1年的全因死亡率为16.7%(39/233)。与预后良好组相比,预后不良组患者简易量表评分及ASTRAL评分更高。随着简易量表评分的增加,患者不良预后的发生率及病死率也明显增加。Logistic回归分析显示年龄、NIHSS评分、合并糖尿病是AIS患者发生不良预后的危险因素。对AIS患者1年不良预后及死亡风险的预测中,两种评分系统均有较好的预测效能,差异无统计学意义。结论:简易量表简单可靠,可替代ASTRAL量表预测AIS患者的长期预后。
- 简易量表 /
- 洛桑卒中量表 /
- 急性缺血性脑卒中 /
- 预后不良
Abstract: Objective:To explore the predictive efficacy of the simple scale in predicting 1-year adverse prognosis of patients with acute ischemic stroke(AIS) in emergency ward, and compare it with acute stroke registry and analysis of Lausanne(ASTRAL).Methods:A total of 233 patients with AIS were continuously enrolled in the emergency ward from August 2015 to June 2018 and their clinical data were recorded. The patients were followed up after one year and were divided into good prognosis group and poor prognosis group according to the modified rankin scale(mRS). The discriminatory ability of the two scoring systems on the long-term adverse prognosis of AIS patients was assessed by calculating area under the receiver operating characteristic(AUC) curves. The calibration was assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.Results:One year later, 121 patients had good prognosis and 112 patients had poor prognosis. The 1-year all-cause mortality of AIS patients in emergency ward was 16.7%(39/233). Compared with the good prognosis group, the poor prognosis group had higher scores of simple scale and ASTRAL. The patients with higher simple scale score had higher mortality and poorer outcome. Logistic regression analysis showed that age, NIHSS score and diabetes mellitus were risk factors for poor prognosis of AIS patients. In the prediction of 1-year adverse prognosis and risk of death in AIS patients, the two scoring systems had good predictive value, and the difference was not statistically significant.Conclusion:The simple scale is a simple and reliable alternative to ASTRAL in predicting the long-term outcome in patients with AIS.
- simple scale /
- acute stroke registry and analysis of Lausanne /
- acute ischemic stroke /
- adverse prognosis

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